Understand the background of the Chinese Communist Party Congress

Opinion Commentary by Chris Devonshire-Ellis – October 18, 2022

Any views or opinions represented in this blog are personal comments, belong solely to the contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Asia Briefing Limited or Dezan Shira & Associates.

Analysis by senior members of Group 48, London

Every five years, the Chinese president addresses the Party and the people, as the Party structure is renewed from top to bottom. During this week, we will know a lot about the new Central Committee, the new Politburo and the new Standing Committee. In March 2023, we will know the new Heads of State as they are officially appointed, but most are appointed during this event. For example, the new Prime Minister will be the second or third highest ranking official on the Standing Committee, which will include the top seven Party members.

In this article, we offer a brief analysis of President Xi’s speech. We feel able to comment with full knowledge of his intentions because we have direct channels of communication at the highest levels of the CCP, including directly with President Xi Jinping.

Stephen Perry, Chairman of Group 48 with Chinese President Xi Jinping

Unlike most Western commentators, we see through Chinese material to deep politics. But deep politics is less important in a world today where the United States has signaled its fundamental rejection of China and Russia, deeming them both disruptive to Washington, Western international rules and liberal democracy, and determined to replace them with new rules. which Washington says would give China and Russia world leadership.

This demonization is controversial and unproven. But it is obvious that China and Russia want a new world order led by the world on a collective basis and not by a relatively small part of it. However, this “little part” contains most of the world’s wealth and military might.

China’s approach has always been peaceful coexistence, but it focuses on its national defense policy, formulated since 1949 and the Korean and Vietnam wars.

We will wait for the history books to reveal what happened around the turn of the millennium when China received US support for WTO entry, which transformed China on a trajectory towards the largest economy in the world. From nowhere in the 70s-80s, starting in 1978 and continuing today.

The United States seems to have believed that it would get much more out of the new China than it was able to. Is this an example of superior negotiation tactics, or simply that the United States has not taken China seriously enough? It is true that the United States was concerned about 9/11, oil and the Middle East. We may never know, but we do know that joining the WTO transformed the Chinese economy to where it is today. The United States is trying to reverse this trajectory and make China less competitive. Taiwan is the irritant between them and could be a flashpoint.

But, after the advocate of a more serious journey through capitalism, from feudalism to socialism, led by Zhu Rongji and others, retired in 2002 – at one of those 5-year congresses , China passed after 10 more years to President Xi, and a real turning point towards Chinese socialism. It’s very unlike anything the world has ever seen. China has studied the West very deeply and carefully for 50 years to create a system shared with capitalism, but led, uniquely, by socialism. The United States, alongside most Western politicians and corporations, does not support socialism without understanding much of what it means. Most Western impressions of socialism are drawn from media portrayals of Russia, nationalization and striking unions.

Chinese socialism is very different. Much of its transitional structures are learned from the West, especially from the Lutheran capitalism of Germany and Northern Europe. Their capitalism sees socialism living alongside capitalism but puts more emphasis on sharing the rewards. The forms of redistribution and inequality are much better understood in these countries. But Washington does not appreciate this. They want a more classical capitalism and have been trying for decades to dilute the social capitalism of Northern Europe.

Xi reinforced the message that he was driven to accelerate the development of Chinese socialism. And it’s very different from American and British capitalism. He also felt, as early as 1949, that the United States would like to get rid of the CCP and convert China to capitalism, as vassal states under the United States. It was the sense that the United States was coming to China from 2010 that led Xi to accelerate the Belt and Road Initiative to create new transportation, energy and telecommunications systems to connect Asia and Europe. This has ushered in new modes of cooperation between major countries.

After flirting with a more capitalist approach in the 1990s, China has started to revert to Chinese socialism which is very much based on Chinese history and uses capitalism and reform. Chinese socialism is here to stay for the long haul unless the US can slow it down and coax Beijing into following the US and UK systems.

This is what Washington, since 2011, has decided to face. This will not allow China to quietly walk past the United States and the West, with Russia marching alongside it. The confrontation, even in Ukraine, was non-military. However, Ukraine is a Russian way, it is not a Chinese way. But the rhetoric of the few months from the United States indicates that this could turn into a war, which would be a disaster. So maybe we are at the stage of the big bluff, and it will be done more calmly in the division of the planet.

Xi has made it clear that the Chinese are for cooperation, but not for being told what to do. He said it again very clearly in his speech on Monday. He also made it very clear that China is building a new China which will be completed by 2035 and then completed by 2049 with Chinese socialism. He did not say that their environment is now Asia, but not the United States. But it is the West that says so.

China wants to share its wealth with its Asian neighbors, and we can see Asia transforming into a global powerhouse, the center of innovation and new ways to develop the world. At the same time, the Chinese want to link and develop trade and ties with Europe.

Chinese socialism will have a great impact on the developing world and then on the developed world. It would be beneficial for the West to start evaluating Chinese socialism. It is likely to have a significant impact on all of our nations over the next 50 to 100 years as we see China forging ahead while the West must plan ahead in terms of understanding and ability to engage constructively.

Group 48: https://www.the48groupclub.com/


Any views or opinions represented in this blog are personal comments, belong solely to the contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Asia Briefing Limited or Dezan Shira & Associates.

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